Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
